May 30, 2008
MUDGE’s Musings
Oil prices. A very hot, very sticky, very crude topic. We’ll look at four versions of reality.
MUDGE‘s reality: $4.259/gallon at his neighborhood Shell.
From the mosaic, we can hope that some kind of truth emerges.
No question that we are living in interesting times.
Oil spill no. 1. How high is up?
$200 a barrel petroleum. If you think your world is changing around you, buckle up.
![theamerican[4]](https://mudge.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/theamerican4.jpg?w=396&h=92)
Will Oil Really Hit $200 a Barrel?
Rudi Dornbusch, the renowned economist, once said that he did not understand how Mexico’s central bank board members could make the same mistakes time after time. Looking at the ongoing frenzy in the global oil market, one appreciates what Dornbusch meant. Once again, many market participants appear to believe that oil prices can only go up. It seems that the painful lessons of the 2001 dot-com bust have been forgotten, as have the lessons of the much more recent U.S. housing crash.
In their state of forgetfulness, many pension funds and insurance companies have built up very large open positions in the oil futures market. These positions are now estimated to total over $200 billion, roughly the equivalent of a full year of Chinese oil demand. They have contributed to the recent spectacular run-up in oil prices.
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China, Economic depression, Economy, India, Politics, Presidential election | Tagged: "May you live in interesting times", $200/barrel, Casablanca, China, criminomics, economics, high prices, India, Obama, oil, Pacer, petroleum, Prius, Recession, Tata Motors, Thomas Friedman, Vietnam | 
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Posted by mudge
May 8, 2008
MUDGE’s Musings
Three days after first published, this column by Thomas Friedman is still among the NYTimes’ most emailed stories. I’ve had it on my shelf since then, thought its time might have passed, but the fact that it’s still in such strong circulation made it the perfect candidate for yr (justifiably) humble svt‘s post no. 400 at this nanocorner of the ‘Sphere©.
In all the noise of an endless political season, Friedman discerns a message that obviously resonates with his audience.
Who Will Tell the People?
Op-Ed Columnist | By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN | Published: May 4, 2008
Traveling the country these past five months while writing a book, I’ve had my own opportunity to take the pulse, far from the campaign crowds. My own totally unscientific polling has left me feeling that if there is one overwhelming hunger in our country today it’s this: People want to do nation-building. They really do. But they want to do nation-building in America.
They are not only tired of nation-building in Iraq and in Afghanistan, with so little to show for it. They sense something deeper — that we’re just not that strong anymore. We’re borrowing money to shore up our banks from city-states called Dubai and Singapore. Our generals regularly tell us that Iran is subverting our efforts in Iraq, but they do nothing about it because we have no leverage — as long as our forces are pinned down in Baghdad and our economy is pinned to Middle East oil.
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Leave a Comment » | Iraq occupation, Obama, Politics, Presidential election, Recession | Tagged: Barack Obama, idealism, patriotism, Thomas Friedman, Who will tell the people? | Permalink
Posted by mudge
Left-handed Complement 